Events

11:45am - 1:00pm, Zoom
Meeting ID: 963 2560 9671
Passcode: 698339

Natalie Dean, PhD

Associate Professor, Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Department of Epidemiology
Emory University Rollins School of Public Health

Challenges in Estimating Vaccine Effectiveness Against Progression to Severe Disease

Vaccines can reduce an individual’s risk of infection and their risk of progression to disease given infection. The latter effect is less commonly estimated but is relevant for risk communication and vaccine impact modeling. Using a motivating example from the COVID-19 literature, we note how vaccine effectiveness against progression can appear to increase over time in settings where true biological strengthening is unlikely. We use mathematical modeling to demonstrate how this phenomenon can occur when there is an underlying vulnerable subpopulation with poor vaccine response against infection and progression. As a result, the earliest infections are among those with the weakest protection against disease. We describe a modeling framework to link underlying immunology and post-vaccination outcomes that we use to further examine this problem. This work highlights methodological challenges in isolating a vaccine’s effect on progression to severe disease after infection.

Biostatistics Departmental Seminars & Lectures

During the Fall and Spring semesters, the Department of Biostatistics holds regular seminars on Thursdays, called the Levin Lecture Series, on a wide variety of topics which are of interest to both students and faculty. Over each semester, there are also often guest lectures outside the regular Thursday Levin Lecture Series, to provide a robust schedule the covers the wide range of topics in Biostatistics. The speakers are invited guests who spend the day of their seminar discussing their research with Biostatistics faculty and students.